Persistence in Forecasting

The doom-mongers are nothing if not persistent:

A lot of it has to do with timing. While many economists are willing to imagine in detail what a perfect storm would look like, virtually none will forecast precisely when - or if - it will start. And so it remains a vague and distant possibility.  Besides, adds Jeffrey Frankel, “some of us have been warning of this hard-landing scenario for more than 20 years.”

And for the next 20 too, I suspect.  Steve Ellison at Daily Speculations has an amusing list giving reasons to be bearish for every year going back to 1934!

(thanks to Jack S. for the NYT pointer).