Efficient Markets
Economics
Financial Markets
James Hamilton’s recession probability index: 16.9%.
Intrade’s US 2007 recession contract implied probability: 15%.
Who said prediction markets don’t reflect fundamentals?
Stephen Kirchner
April 28, 2007
James Hamilton’s recession probability index: 16.9%.
Intrade’s US 2007 recession contract implied probability: 15%.
Who said prediction markets don’t reflect fundamentals?