Steyn versus Caplan on EU Succession

Mark Steyn accepts Bryan Caplan’s EU succession wager:

If any current EU member with a population over 10 million people in 2007 officially withdraws from the EU before January 1, 2020, I will pay you $100. Otherwise, you owe me $100.

Unfortunately, Caplan has closed his book after three people took him up on the bet.  Perhaps Intrade can be persuaded to make a contract out of it?

Incidentally, while Intrade’s US 2008 recession contract is trading at just over 50%, the contracts for the quarterly GDP outcomes are suggesting a better than 50% chance that growth will be positive for every quarter this year, with the exception of Q2.  Intrade’s definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.